The following are guarantied in the Democratic Camp:
Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Washington DC
Illinois
Wisconsin
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
Total electoral votes: 197 (270 needed to win)
The guarantied Democratic states are quite a collection. First, we have the New England states, tied with the Pacific coast as the most liberal and secular region in the nation. The Republican Party, though very moderate, is being slowly killed off in these states because voters are sick of how far to the Right the national party is going. New York and New Jersey used to be competitive states, but just as in New England, voters are sick of the social issues and the Republican Party has survived by being only conservative on the economic issues. Delaware is the home of Joe Biden, and Maryland has a large population of African Americans and White liberals and Washington DC is about 70% Black. Illinois is Obama's home state, though the size of the Chicago area is large enough to make Illinois a Democratic stronghold no matter who was running. Wisconsin has a strong tradition of Progressive tradition. California, with its population of White Liberals and Hispanics who are disgusted with the racism in the Republican denouncement of illegal immigration, as well as the general corruption in the nation party. Oregon and Washington have very liberal traditions on their coastal communities, and fortunately, that's where most of the population of those states live. And Hawaii is the birthplace of Obama, but its multi ethnic population would bring its votes in the Democratic camp no matter who was running.
The guarantied Republican states:
West Virgina
Kentucky
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Arizona
Alaska
Total electoral votes: 197 (270 needed to win)
The first thing anyone should notice about the guarantied Republican states is that with the exception of Arizona and Texas, that they are very, very White, and had John McCain not have been the Republican nominee, Arizona would probably be in play. West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee is Appalachia, home of Reagan Democrats who as of late been voting Republican a lot and yet don't understand why things keep getting worst. Then we have the Deep South, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This is also the Bible Belt, where a love of God, guns, and country is strong, and a hatred of homosexuals, foreigners, and atheists/agnostics/desists is almost as strong (there's still a racial problem, but at least today no one is willing to admit it). Texas, also part of the Bible Belt, with its legions of Evangelicals, is another Republican stronghold, but thanks to the Republicans hard line view on illegal immigration, the large Hispanic population has given the Texas Democratic Party a boost and the margin of victory isn't as large as it used to be. The Plains, the birthplace of American Populism, is now a conservative stronghold. Then we have the West, with its strong libertarian tradition (as well as a love of guns). Utah and Idaho are the 2 most Republican states in the nation. However most Western conservatives have never been easy with the marriage of the Christian Right to the Republican Party, and a disgust at corruption and incompetence has now put much of the West into play. Finally we have Alaska, home of Sarah Palin.
Finally lets come into the Playing Field:
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Michigan
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
North Dakota
Montana
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Lets take a look at each one state by state:
New Hampshire
Once a solid Republican state New Hampshire is now Democratic stronghold on a state level and a swing state on the national stage. In 2006 both of its congressional seats went Democratic and this fall Republican Senator John Sununu (who voted to support Bush's policies 90% of the time) is up for re-election and it looks like he 's going to be creamed by the wildly popular former NH Gov Jeanne Shaheen. As the rest of New England turned more liberal, New Hampshire did as well, though at a slower pace. As many Bostonians moved into New Hampshire, they brought they're Boston values and Democratic beliefs with them. Meanwhile, unlike most Republican states, New Hampshire's culture is thoroughly secular, and many in New Hampshire, like the rest of the Northeast, have never been comfortable with the rise of the Christian Right. Though New Hampshirians still love their guns and low taxes, they also like smart foreign policy and have no problem with Adam and Steve being together. John McCain won the primary in 2008 and 2000, and many in New Hampshire still remember fondly the maverick of the 1990's who was destroyed by George Bush in 2000. McCain is very respected here. Obama, as we all know came in a close 2nd here, and many in New Hampshire would prefer McCain to Obama. However, if there is any place where Sarah Palin could turn off potential Republican voters, this is the place. Currently Obama is up by a slither in the polls. Regardless who wins, it will be a very close one.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has been a swing state since the dawn of political parties over 200 years ago. Today, both parties have strongholds in parts of Pennsylvania. The Democrats have Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and the Republicans have the rural center of the state (which is more culturally aligned with Appalachia than Philly and Pittsburgh). It is the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh as well as the eastern half of PA that is really in play. The suburban areas should be Republican strongholds, but many have been turned off by the Republican Party's extremism on social issues and its general incompetence. Obama also did very well in the primary in these areas, though he was destroyed in the rest of the state. Then there is Eastern PA, one of the most industrial parts of the nation with its legions of blue collar industrial workers. These workers are your Reagan Democrats, economically with the Democratic Party, culturally, more with the Republican Party. Lately, they have been voting Republican more and more though, though John Kerry did win a slim majority of these voters (and with that PA's electoral votes). These were also Hillary's largest group of supporters in the primaries, and many are uncomfortable with Obama getting the top job. This area has also been affected by the economic downturn of the Bush years, with more and more places closing shop. Joe Biden grew up in this area, in Scranton, and he still identifies with its blue collar culture. Right now with Sarah Palin's entrance, PA is too close to call.
Ohio
Another traditional swing state, Ohio is in a way a microcosm of the US. Some of the most die hard Republican districts are in Ohio as well as some of the most progressive districts (Super Leftest Dennis Kucinich has been representing Ohio's 10th District since 1997). George Bush won by a razor thin victory in 2004 (though I wont bring up those missing ballot boxes), and there is a huge get out the vote drive among both parties. The last time Ohio voted against the winning Presidential Candidate was 1960, so this is a real battlefield. The voters who are really up for grabs are the legions of blue collar industrial workers who call Ohio home. Like their PA counterparts, they have never been warm to Obama, and they do have a strong respect for McCain. However, Ohio has been one of the hardest hit regions in the recent economic meltdown, with home foreclosures out of control and very few new jobs entering the state. The Republican Party in Ohio has also just got through a nasty corruption scandal that included an convicted governor (who at the time of his leaving office, was probably the most despised politician in the nation, with less than 10% of Ohioans supporting him) and a congressman who had to resign. The Democrats did pick up a congressional district in 2006 as well as 8 seats in the State House of Representatives and the Governorship. Right now the Democrats are hoping that this trend will continue but the Republican Party is going to put up one nasty fight for this state.
Another traditional swing state, Ohio is in a way a microcosm of the US. Some of the most die hard Republican districts are in Ohio as well as some of the most progressive districts (Super Leftest Dennis Kucinich has been representing Ohio's 10th District since 1997). George Bush won by a razor thin victory in 2004 (though I wont bring up those missing ballot boxes), and there is a huge get out the vote drive among both parties. The last time Ohio voted against the winning Presidential Candidate was 1960, so this is a real battlefield. The voters who are really up for grabs are the legions of blue collar industrial workers who call Ohio home. Like their PA counterparts, they have never been warm to Obama, and they do have a strong respect for McCain. However, Ohio has been one of the hardest hit regions in the recent economic meltdown, with home foreclosures out of control and very few new jobs entering the state. The Republican Party in Ohio has also just got through a nasty corruption scandal that included an convicted governor (who at the time of his leaving office, was probably the most despised politician in the nation, with less than 10% of Ohioans supporting him) and a congressman who had to resign. The Democrats did pick up a congressional district in 2006 as well as 8 seats in the State House of Representatives and the Governorship. Right now the Democrats are hoping that this trend will continue but the Republican Party is going to put up one nasty fight for this state.
Michigan
Another Blue Collar state, Michigan is home of some of the most industrial parts of the country. The Blue Collar culture runs deep here, but lately, more and more factories (particularly auto) are shut down, and the legions of Industrial workers who call Michigan home have been getting angry with both parties (Michael Moore is from this group of people, and remember he has been tough on both parties). Lately, Michigan has been in the Democratic camp, but usually with razor thin margins. Like their brethren in OH and PA, Michigan Blue Collar workers are Reagan Democrats, who love their guns and are for God (though it should be pointed out most Regan Democrats are Catholic) and country. However, Michigan, like Ohio, has been one of the hardest hit areas in the economic downturn, and the unions still have some sway. Though Michigan's primary results were disqualified for being held to early, many in Michigan feel another Republican President will be an economic disaster for the state (plus many didn't like it when McCain said some lost jobs weren't coming back). Michigan also has a large African American population centered in Detroit, and expect a huge get out the vote drive there.Iowa
Though Iowa's farm culture is quite conservative, Iowans have always been willing to give liberal Democrats a chance, and last winter many Iowans fell in love with Obama. Bush won in 2004 by a small margin and many have since regretted voting for him. The success of Obama and Mike Huckabee in the caucuses this spring shows how upset many Iowans of both parties are with the direction this nation is going (though in fairness McCain made no effort in the Iowa Caucuses). The Democratic Party as a whole has been doing very well here, in 2006 Democrats got the Governorship, 2 congressional seats (giving Democrats 3 of Iowa's 5 seats), and both houses of the Iowa State Legislature. While many are predicting Iowa to vote Democratic this fall, the Republicans won't go down without a fight.
Minnesota
Minnesota is traditionally an independent progressive state. Third Parties tend to do well here and Minnesota has the highest voting percentage in the nation (close to 80%). Though Democrats have tended to do well here, Republicans have been doing well lately, winning the governorship in 2003. However, Democrats ran an aggressive local campaign in 2006 and won control of both Houses of the State Legislature by large majorities. Though Minnesota voted against Bush both times, the Republicans put up one nasty fight and expect them to do the same this fall.
Virginia
A longtime conservative Republican state, Virginia has voted Republican in every election since 1952 (except in 1964). Lately, Virginia has undergone a population shift, as Northern Virgina has become a stronghold of suburban liberals (many of whom work in DC and follow politics very closely). Add in a very large Black population (20%, one of the total population) and add in a local Democratic Party that runs more conservative candidates, you have Virginia being up for grabs. With a wildly popular Democratic Governor,(Tim Kane) and with 1 Democrat (Jim Webb) in the Senate and another (Mark Warner) expected to win the other Senate seat this fall, Democrats have put Virginia in play and are making a real effort. Right now the polls show the election to go either way, and if there is any state that could become the Florida of 2008, this could be it.
North Carolina
Another longtime Republican State (and technically in the Bible Belt), the Democrats are making a serious effort at getting North Carolina to vote Democratic for the first time since 1976. It was the results of the North Carolina Primary that determined that Obama would be the Democratic nominee, and many would love to this victory vindicated by an Obama victory in the state in November. Though African Americans make up about a quarter of the state's population, there aren't just enough White Liberals to counterbalance the local Republican Party. However, the local Democratic Party is in a fighting spirit and is going to make the Republicans to fight dearly for this state.
Florida
Florida, the state whose stolen electoral votes gave Bush the victory he needed in 2000 is again in play. With so many different demographics, both parties have a hard time in getting large majorities, though the current demographics do favor Republicans. However, most Floridians are opposed to off shore drilling, considering that many of these wells that everyone is talking about will be drilled in Florida waters and in Florida, the locals of both parties are terrified of losing millions of tourist dollars should drilling commence at the rate many Republicans want it to. Wildly popular Republican Governor Charlie Crist was until recently a major opponent to off shore drilling, and many suspect his recent change of heart has more to with orders from above rather than through personal conviction. Democrats are also trying to get the large Cuban community based in Miami. Traditionally one of most staunchly Republican groups in the country, the younger generation of Cuban Americans are being turned off by what they view as racism in the national Republican Party, and also feel that the embargo on their parents and grandparents home island is way to harsh. Also, Florida has large communities of Haitians, Puetro Ricans, and Dominicans, all of whom are loyal Democrats. And don't forget the large number of Northerners who have moved to Florida, taking their more liberal ways with them. However, the northern half of Florida is still a Republican stronghold, with the legions of the Christian Right ready to vote the way their pastors tell them to. Watch the fight for Florida get nasty in the coming weeks.Missouri
One of the most divided states in the nation, Missouri has 2 large cities on each side of the state (St Louis and Kansas City), both of whom are progressive Democratic strongholds, the rest of the state is thoroughly die hard Far Right Republican (Rush Limbaugh is from rural Missouri). Each statewide election causes a huge turn out the vote drive in Missouri, as the numbers of the two groups are about even, and many statewide elections are resolved with razor thin majorities. As of right now the polls have the McCain being a head by a few points, though watch it really nasty in the coming weeks. Another potential Florida.
North Dakota
To everyone's surprise North Dakota is in play this year, with Obama actually being head in some polls and not far hind McCain in the polls that put McCain in the lead. The last time North Dakota went Democratic was 1964 and before that in 1936. So surprising is it that neither campaign has a real game plan for North Dakota like they do with the other states up for grabs this year. North Dakota has been quite loyal to the Republican brand for years now and I suspect Obama's surprising preformance here in the polls has something to do with North Dakotians being sick of the sleeze and disgrace that has been the George Bush Administration.
Montana
Another suprise swing state this time around, but this time there is an explanation and a game plan for Montana. While many in the Rocky Mountain states are quite conservative in attitude and outlook, these same conservatives have always been an independent thinking type known as libertarian. Also, many in the Montana (and in fellow swing states Nevada and New Mexico) are not Evangelical, so the social issues that gets the Republican base out to vote don't work here. And the Evangelicals that do live in Montana are more moderate and are more concerned with issues such as the enviroment and standard of living than the more traditional issues that most Evangelicals care about. The Democrats have tapped into this and have been getting moderate Democrats elected into office. Governor Brian Schweitzer is wildly popular here, and both Senate seats are held by Democrats. The State Senate is also in Democratic control. Obama won the primary here by a landslide, and many are hoping this can turn into Montana's votes going Democratic for the first time since 1992.
Colorado
Colorado has four main demographics. First we have the legions of the Christian Right who are identical to their Southern and Plains counterparts, and in many ways, more fanatical (In fact, many of your political organizations of the Christian Right are based in Colorado). Next we have the growing community of progressives in the Denver area and in the ski areas, many of whom are West Coast transplants who brought their West Coast values with them. Then we have the even faster growing Hispanic community. Finally, we have your traditional libertarian Republicans living in the more rural areas. In 2006, Democrat Bill Ritter was elected Governor by a landslide and the Democrats also picked up a congressional seat. The Hispanic coumminity is very loyal to the Democratic Party, in part because Tom Tancredo, one of the major opponents of illegal immigration and legal immigration (and one of the most racist in his attacks on Hispanic immigratns), happens to represent Colorado's 6th district in the House of Reps. The Democrats hosted their convention in Denver this year in aprt to bring Colorado into the Democratic camp for the first time 1992. Watch for a large get out the vote drive as well as a firece fight for the liberatian Republicans and some of the surbanites.Nevada
Nevada is really 2 separate places, Las Vegas, and the rest of the state. Vegas is home to a large Hispanic popualtion (about 20% of the total population), many of whom are employed by the casinos in the service sector. These legions of Hispanic (many of whom are Mexican) waiters, busboys, dishwashers, maids, cleaners, gardeners, and contruction workers are what makes your visit to Vegas confortable and convenient. If it wasn't for these hard working immigrants (many of whom are working for crappy wages), Vegas wouldn't be the great destination it is today. While the casino bosses and owners tend to vote Republican, the Hispanic community tends to vote for the Democrats. Though Hillary won this group by a landslide, many were quick to jump on the Obama bandwagon once it was clear who was going to win the nomination. It is the rest of the state that is in play. This is the old school Nevada, home of libertarian ranchers and mine owners living in small towns and with the odd bordello or 2, a holdover from the frontier era. While many are very conservative, many are disgusted with the recent behavor of the Republican Party and many are open to voting Democratic. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is from Nevada, and he is wildly popular there, winning by a landslide back in 2004. The Republican Govenor, Jim Gibbons, however, is even more unpopular than Bush is and is embrolled in quite a few scandals, ranging from bribery to employing an illegal immigrant to sexual assult. Watch these 2 factors come into play as both parties try to woo the more rural parts of the state.New Mexico
Though New Mexico is in the heart of the Southwest, it is a very diverse place. New Mexico has the highest percentage of Hispanics in the nation, with 40% of the state's population claiming at least some Latino heritage; about half of this group speaks Spanish at home. The very popular Democratic Governor, Bill Richardson, is a Hispanic himself and grew up speaking Spanish. Though this group was up for grabs at one time, throughout the nation Hispanics are being turned off by the Republican crackdown of illegal immigration, and New Mexico Hispanics are no exception. Another 10% of the state's population is Native American, which while traditionally Republican, has been more supporitive of Democratic candidates lately. The remaining 50% is White, but this group has a strong libertarian tradition, and has been voting Democratic on the state leval more and more lately. It will be this group that will be up for grabs.
So there is the playing field. Right now this race is too close to call.
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